Media War
All the information fields in Russia are concentrated in Ukraine situation. It escalated into media war: Russian Media controlled by government announce the inadmissibility of Crimea situation destabilization, necessity to protect Russian population in Ukraine out of the Ukraine nationalists. Western forces intervention into domestic affairs of Ukraine is widely propagated and Russia in its turn acts as public defender out of radicals. By the way, Russia “has an ace up sleeve” – Victor Yanukovich, the only Ukraine president elected on the legitimate basis, who is currently staying at the territory of Russia. In this regard, the largest Ukraine Internet and cable TV provider ceased broadcasting three Russian TV channels in Kiev. Provider’s web-site says that RTR-Planeta, First Channel. Worldwide net. and NTV World “violate the Ukraine legislation by aggressive propaganda and call to arms spreading feud and hatred”.
It should be reminded that on Saturday Federation Council gave a permission to V.V. Putin to bring troops into Crimea. However, on 4th of March troops were withdrawn and Russian President on First press-conference on Crimea situation stated that he does not see the reason in military operations, but noted that troops might be brought into Crimea in “extreme case” – if citizens need a defense.
Force Displaying
On many experts’ opinions, the point of Russia and Ukraine conflict does not actually consist in bilateral relationships between Russia and Ukraine. It has more sense in worldwide geopolitical environment where V.V. Putin continues anti-Western campaign.
War provocation and troops withdrawal from the Ukraine territory in this situation mean:
- Admission the fact that Country does not any other arguments but applying the force,
- Positioning itself on a global stage as a player of great resolve, who is able to provoke a public for counteraction with one announcement.
International community has already demonstrated readiness to support Ukraine economically as a response to the risk of Russian intervention and its expansion into the eastern part of the country.
What’s Putin’s profit? It’s absolutely a stroke of policy – in condition of the economic environment decline after Olympic games V.V. Putin demonstrates power and importance uplifting public spirit and playing with anti-Western sentiments. In this situation, “to be friends against somebody” is more convenient when society is ideologically divided and patriotic sentiments on the background of Russia-West opposition are likely to unite the society.
However, it complicates former Soviet Union integration. Kazakhstan has already expressed its position concerning inadmissibility of military operations within the Ukraine territory. Russian position concerning Russian-speaking people defense looks convincing – in many former Soviet Union countries exodus of Russian people takes place and no measures concerning that are taken. Politicians have a concern of the fact that sanctions of international communities imposed negative effect on economics of other FSU countries.
Developed civilized country or Imperia with crushed economics?
According to the last poll held by Levada-Center Institute most part of Russian population (43%) believes that people started acts of protect in Kiev precisely under the influence of the West, 31% believes that nationalistic sentiments provoked the revolution and only 17% believes that Ukraine citizens were indignant at Yanukovich’s regime. According to sociologists of Kiev international Institute assert that in reality most part of Ukrainians (43%) were discontented with current regime.
Sociological researches show that such revoke of Putin takes off the sticky issues from the agenda and takes attention to Russia-West opposition, which Putin successfully handle with.
However, Crimea project is still not over and situation remains strained. Project can be successful only if Russians do not feel the serious economic repercussions.
Putin’s position on Crimea has purely political nature, but economic costs are already obvious. During morning trading on March, 3 Russian quotations depreciated in record-breaking manner, Ruble-Euro quotation hit record and up to date is about 50 RUB per EUR. According to newspaper Vedomosti it costs Centobank $10.5 bln to support a ruble after Federation Council’s permission to bring troops into the territory of Ukraine. Predictable panic was spread over stock markets and as a result stock indexes and exchange value of ruble fell down.
Political self-affirmation brings huge economic costs. In situation when in Russia political and social institutes are ill-developed, high level of corruption, no developed middle class, no strong small and middle business and when ruble rate is close to depreciation – is it high time to consolidate the political regime at the cost of economic losses of the country?
It is difficult chose Russian people have to make – what country they want to live in? – civilized, developed commonwealth with strong economics or in poor country with imperial ambitions and military power.
Evgenia Iskakova,
Political Analyst
March 4, 2014